Abstract:
The oil price is a relevant variable for economic policy makers in countries
where this commodity is the main energy source as well as in other countries
where crude oil is not the only energy source. The sudden variations in the
crude oil price cause direct influence in the national economies bringing
changes in foreign trade, investments and productive activities. Therefore, the
crude oil market is very important for the economic development. Furthermore,
crude oil is directly or indirectly present in all productive activities.
This way the crude oil market is related to the industrial production indicators.
Many researches aim at establishing the stochastic process that can
represent the movements of macroeconomic indicators through the oil price
returns or variations that have been done in recent years. The purpose of this
work is to study the relationship between crude oil prices and selected industrial
production indicators of the Brazilian economy. To do that this work
carried out cointegration and causality tests, from VAR estimations, and impulse
response analysis. The data used in this study is monthly macroeconomic
indicators, mentioned above, and the Brent crude oil type price negotiated
in the London Market. All data used is in US$. The period of the sample
used is from January 2002 to October 2015.
